Before transitioning from Forrester to the Altimeter Group, Jeremiah Owyang collaborated with Josh Bernoff, Cynthia N. Pflaum, and Emily Bowen to publish a pivotal report that aimed to clarify the future trajectory of the Social Web. Viewing the content of this research as a social object, the ensuing conversations could significantly accelerate the development and implementation of the valuable predictions and insights contained within.
Observations on the State of the Social Web
The first part of the report highlights the current state of the Social Web and outlines its future direction:
“Today’s social experience is disjointed because consumers have separate identities in each social network they visit. A simple set of technologies that enable a portable identity will soon empower consumers to bring their identities with them — transforming marketing, eCommerce, CRM, and advertising. IDs are just the beginning of this transformation, in which the Web will evolve step by step from separate social sites into a shared social experience. Consumers will rely on their peers as they make online decisions, whether or not brands choose to participate. Socially connected consumers will strengthen communities and shift power away from brands and CRM systems; eventually, this will result in empowered communities defining the next generation of products.”
Stages of Social Web Evolution
Forrester outlines the evolution of the Social Web in several distinct stages:
1. The Era of Social Relations
Beginning with AOL and similar platforms in the mid-1990s, this era connected individuals through basic profiles and friending features, laying the groundwork for online conversations.
2. The Era of Social Functionality
This phase evolved from simple friending to platforms that supported social interaction through applications and infrastructure, facilitating communities within specific networks. As I previously noted, social networks are competing to become our individual online OS. Facebook’s introduction of its Facebook Connect infrastructure allows users to navigate the social web with their Facebook identity, bridging updates back to the Facebook News Feed and sharing with their social graph. This advancement demonstrates the power of interconnected activity and profile streams, making the Social Web feel more cohesive.
However, what we truly need is a “Facebook Connect” feature across all sites, not limited to any single network. This would pave the way for the era of social colonization, as predicted by Forrester.
This need is particularly significant for brands, which will invest considerable time, resources, and money to engage in meaningful conversations across multiple networks.
3. The Era of Social Colonization
Expected to emerge soon, this stage will see tools like OpenID and Facebook Connect enabling individuals to traverse networks freely while maintaining their social graphs. Forrester anticipates that this will allow for a portable identity across networks, with the portability of data, social objects, and friendships becoming the Holy Grail.
For consumers, the web will no longer be a solitary experience. Forrester predicts the introduction of new browsers and technologies that facilitate real-time collaboration and interaction among friends.
Google Wave exemplifies this trend, centralizing and aggregating user activities across multiple platforms.
Forrester also notes that this era will leverage peer recommendations within active communities. Brands can harness this behavior by fostering advocacy through direct engagement, blogger relations in the magic middle, and sponsored conversations.
This will serve as a bridge to social context.
4. The Era of Social Context
Beginning in 2010, social networks and platforms will start recognizing user preferences and personal identities, customizing experiences based on individual behavior. While this technology is already in use by dedicated networks like Trusted Opinion and Yelp, future networks will incorporate similar functionalities using technologies akin to Baynote. This approach leverages the Wisdom of the Crowds to personalize content for each user.
In the near future, much of the content will be automated, yet it will still rely on individuals’ explicit input to enhance the experience. As Forrester notes, “Portable IDs mean you’ll be able to flip a switch to tell Nike you’re a woman who runs 12 miles a week and immediately see the shoes that are best for you — along with input from experiences of your running buddies.”
I believe that combining semantic and collective intelligence systems will significantly improve content and overall interaction within social networks over time.
5. The Era of Social Commerce
By 2011-2012, social networks are expected to surpass corporate websites and CRM systems. Forrester predicts that communities will become a driving force for innovation, compelling companies to cater formally to these communities, thereby shifting power toward connected customers.
The Dawn of Social Relationship Management (SRM)
While Forrester anticipates the era of Social Commerce, I envision a future where the social web embraces a corporate philosophy that transitions from traditional CRM to Social Relationship Management (SRM). This shift will usher in a new era, as observed by Forrester, and align closely with Vendor Relationship Management (VRM), championed by thought leaders like Doc Searls and Chris Carfi. VRM flips the CRM model on its head, empowering consumers and shifting the balance of power in relationships from vendors to customers. This approach fosters systems that enhance consumer participation and sentiment, ultimately improving products and services with every interaction.
While some argue that relationships cannot be managed, in the context of business and a vibrant social web, this notion is increasingly relevant. The Social Web is distributing influence beyond traditional customer landscapes, allocating authority among stakeholders, advocates, decision-makers, and peers. SRM acknowledges that whether someone recommends a product, purchases it, or simply recognizes it publicly, each action impacts behavior at various levels.
Thus, customers are now part of a larger equation that balances vendors, experts, partners, and other authorities. In the realm of SRM, influence is distributed and recognized wherever it manifests.
“SRM is a doctrine aligned with a humanized business strategy and supporting technology infrastructure and platform. SRM recognizes that all people, no matter what system they use, are equal. It represents a wider scope of active listening and participation across the full spectrum of influence mapped to specific department representatives within the organization using various lenses to identify individuals and their interactions.”
From Adoption to Sophistication: No Social Network is an Island
Forrester acknowledges that the past five years of social media evolution have focused on growth and adoption. However, the next stage will emphasize improving social functionality, personalization, and portability. The greatest opportunity for expanding social networks lies in building bridges between isolated platforms to deliver a more fulfilling, meaningful, and productive experience.
I envision the social web not as a collection of isolated islands but as a cohesive human network—a contextual and relationship-based network comprising like-minded individuals, regardless of where their profiles reside.
In the near term, the future of the Social Web begins with our online identity. While content remains king in social media, data is the currency of social networking. Empowering individuals to maintain one secure profile that serves across existing and emerging social networks is crucial.
OpenID provides a central and secure login for users, connecting identities to various third-party networks, including Google, PayPal, AOL, and MySpace. The future may lie in making data mobile while still providing value to the economics of social networks. DataPortability.org collaborates with renowned networks to enable users to carry their identity, friends, conversations, files, and histories without manually adding them to each new service. Each service can draw on this information relevant to the context within each network, allowing experiences and connections to update automatically across platforms.
The future of the Social Webmust prioritize data portability to accelerate its proliferation throughout Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation adoption system. The absence of such portability could either create a “chasm” that hinders mainstream adoption or lead to the monopolization of user data by a few dominant players.
Envisioning the Future of the Social Web
As we look ahead, the future of the Social Web is poised for transformative changes. The integration of advanced technologies, user-centric design, and a focus on data portability will redefine how we interact online. The evolution from isolated social networks to a cohesive human network will empower users, enhance engagement, and foster meaningful connections.
In this new landscape, brands will need to adapt to the shifting dynamics of power. They must recognize that consumers are not just passive recipients of marketing messages but active participants in shaping products and services. By embracing the principles of SRM, brands can build authentic relationships with their audiences, leveraging the collective intelligence of their communities to drive innovation and growth.
Conclusion
The Social Web is on the brink of a new era, one that emphasizes collaboration, personalization, and user empowerment. As we transition from traditional CRM to SRM, the focus will shift from merely managing customer relationships to fostering genuine connections that benefit both consumers and brands.
The journey toward a more interconnected and user-centric Social Web is just beginning. By prioritizing data portability, embracing social context, and recognizing the influence of communities, we can create a vibrant ecosystem that enhances the online experience for everyone.
How do you envision the future of the Social Web? What role do you see yourself playing in this evolving landscape? The conversation is just getting started, and your insights are invaluable as we navigate this exciting frontier together.